Ready or not, the next presidential election is quickly approaching. While there are a lot of important campaign issues, the housing market is definitely a topic on people’s minds this year. How will the 2024 election affect real estate? Let’s take a look at the historical data surrounding presidential elections to see how this election may measure up…

 

Home Prices

Despite what you may think, home prices do not historically drop surrounding an election. In seven out of the eight last elections, home prices actually rose, often significantly, in the first year following the election. The exception? 2008 when the housing “bubble” burst.

U.S. Median Home Prices

 

Home Sales

Home sales stay relatively stable leading into a presidential election, but I do expect a slowdown in November. Uncertainty is understandable during election season, however, it’s temporary. And, historically, the volume of home sales increased the year following the election for nine out of eleven of the last elections.

Existing U.S. Home Sales

 

Mortgage Rates

Freddie Mac shows that mortgage rates decreased leading up to eight out of the last eleven presidential elections. This rate dip trend is currently at play in 2024 too. Typically, mortgage rates continue to ease in the months immediately following a presidential election so I don’t foresee a significant jump in the immediate future. While these lower rates equal lower payments, they also drive up buyer demand, which, in turn, drives up home prices. This domino effect is especially true in areas like Charlotte, where our inventory of homes for sale remains incredibly low.

Mortgage Rate Changes

 

The Bottom Line

While presidential elections do have some impact on the housing market, the effect is generally temporary. The good (dare I say, GREAT) news is that the year following a presidential election is, historically, a prosperous one for the housing market.

 

I’ve been in residential real estate for over 20 years now. I’ve experienced multiple election cycles and there are always outside economic factors to watch, whether directly tied to a presidential election or not. This year’s election is particularly notable for many reasons, but Charlotte’s housing market is unlikely to see a seismic shift from it this fall. My team and I already have our eyes on the spring market and are optimistic that 2025 will follow the trend and bring a prosperous year for real estate.

 

If you have any questions as you think about buying, selling, investing, or renovating, please feel free to reach out. I’d love to help and it’s never too early to start planning for the new year!

— Genevieve